Blend player history into Race Outlook

[mwickett]

Summary

• Pass permission-gated prediction profiles from the game page into the Race Outlook card for active circle members only
• Blend current-game deltas with capped historical player profiles in the Monte Carlo simulation
• Allow low-confidence early forecasts when usable player history exists
• Label history-backed forecasts and report prior player-score sample counts instead of whole-game round counts

Stack notes

• Stacked on Improve current-game race outlook forecast #266 (mwickett/race-outlook-current-game)
• Carries the profile-query commit from Add permission-gated prediction history profiles #267 until that branch is merged/rebased, because the blending layer depends on the query shape

Claude review

• Claude reviewed the PR2b diff after implementation
• No blocking issues found
• Addressed its medium findings by using per-player history depth for confidence and rewording the UI from prior rounds to prior player scores
• Added tests for early history forecasts, insufficient history, shallow-history confidence, and history-backed UI copy

Verification

• npm run lint
• npm test
• RESEND_API_KEY=re_dummy npx next build

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Integration/testing PR: #270 contains the full stack for end-to-end testing.

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
blitzer	Ready	Preview, Comment	Jun 27, 2026 7:39pm

[mwickett]

Closed as superseded by merged integration PR #270.