Allow publishing a release without creating it on GitHub

[tobim]

🔍 Problem

release publish does commit → tag → push branch → push tag → gh release create inside a single command, so there is no seam between the push and the release. Two situations need one:

• The release belongs in a different repository than the push target. A monorepo that mirrors its sources to a public repo wants the tag in both and the release only in the public one, but the mirror cannot contain the release commit until after the push, so the release must be created later.
• The release should only appear once downstream builds have proven the tag good. Creating it first means a failing build leaves a published release with nothing behind it.

Neither is reachable with the existing hooks: pre-publish runs before anything is pushed, and post-publish runs after the release already exists.

🛠️ Solution

--no-github-release, combined with --tag, stops after the tag is pushed. The reusable workflow exposes the same choice as:

with:
  create-github-release: false

Both default to the current behavior, so existing callers are unaffected. The command rejects --no-github-release without --tag instead of reporting success without publishing anything.

The gh requirement is now conditional because only the skipped step shells out to it.

💬 Review

• The skip lands after the tag push, deliberately. Everything git-side still happens; only the GitHub release is left out.
• Empty deferred publishes fail. --no-github-release requires --tag, and the Python API requires create_tag=True with create_github_release=False.
• config.repository is still required. It selects the git remote via _select_remote_name, not just the release target, so relaxing that guard would change push behavior.
• Progress reflects the actual plan. The publish step is omitted when deferred, and a completed deferred publish renders a green progress panel rather than a red failure panel.
• Coverage exercises the tag push without gh, invalid empty plans, Python API forwarding, confirmation ordering, existing-release edits, progress styling, and reusable-workflow wiring.
• 254 tests pass; Ruff, Mypy, changelog validation, and formatting checks are clean.

Consumer note: This needs a PyPI release before tenzir/mono can use it. Mono's release workflow installs the published tenzir-ship, so an unreleased flag on main would make --no-github-release an unrecognized option and fail the publish step.

_{📚 Docs PR: tenzir/content#198}

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