Kraft Heinz (KHC) — 3-Statement Financial Model

A 3-statement financial model (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement) for The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC), projecting 2026F–2030F off the FY2025 10-K.

Author: Facundo Santiago Lezcano Source: The Kraft Heinz Company 2025 10-K filing Units: USD in millions unless otherwise stated

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Overview

The model links five tabs — Assumptions, Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement, and Supporting Schedules — with fully formula-driven projections (no hardcoded forecast outputs). Every projected line traces back to an assumption cell, and the balance sheet ties out (Assets = Liabilities + Equity) in every period.

Projection period	2026F – 2030F (5 years)
Historical base	2024A, 2025A
Total formulas	314
Formula errors	0
Balance sheet check	Ties to $0 in every period

Key outputs

Revenue & Net Margin

Revenue declined -3.5% in 2025 before a modest recovery is assumed (1.5% → 2.5% growth by 2030F), a 2.1% CAGR from 2025A–2030F. The 2025A net margin (-23.4%) reflects a large one-off charge; net margin normalizes to ~10.6%–12.0% across the forecast.

Free Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow (Cash from Operations − Capex) grows from ~$2,140mm (2026F) to ~$2,713mm (2030F), driven by margin expansion and controlled capex growth.

Capital Structure & Leverage

Debt/Equity improves from 44.2% (2026F) to 29.4% (2030F) as scheduled debt repayment and retained earnings accumulation outpace share repurchases.

Methodology

Core drivers, by statement:

• Revenue — YoY % growth assumption (Assumptions tab)
• COGS / Opex — % of revenue
• D&A — % of opening PP&E balance
• Working capital — DSO / DIO / DPO assumptions drive AR, Inventory, AP
• Debt & interest — scheduled issuance/repayment; interest expense = average(opening, closing debt) × assumed rate
• Capex, buybacks — direct dollar assumptions by year

Full detail, including known limitations, is in docs/methodology.md.

Known limitations

• "Other Assets / Liabilities" (Balance Sheet, row 13) is a balancing plug — the residual required to force Assets = Liabilities + Equity. It is not an independently forecasted line; see the in-cell comment (D13:H13) and docs/methodology.md for detail.

Repo structure

khc-financial-model/
├── README.md
├── model/
│   └── Lezcano-Facundo-Financial_Modeling__KHC.xlsx
├── assets/
│   ├── revenue-margin-trend.png
│   ├── free-cash-flow.png
│   └── leverage-trend.png
└── docs/
    └── methodology.md

Color coding (per model legend)

• 🔵 Blue — hardcoded inputs
• ⚫ Black — in-sheet formulas
• 🟢 Green — cross-sheet references