Predictive Models
Collecting and discussion predictive models for Ebola.
Source: "Health Intelligence" / Ramon Martinez
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Meltzer MI, Atkins CY, Santibanez S, et al. Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic - Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014 - 2015. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. CDC. September 26th 2014. [Available online]
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Washington ML, Atkins CY, Meltzer MI. Generic Ebola Response (ER): modeling the spread of disease impact and intervention. Version 2.5 [Software: Excel Spreadsheet] CDC Stacks.
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WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections. The New England Journal of Medicine NEJM September 23, 2014 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100 [Available online]
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Francis Smart. 1.2 Millions Deaths by Ebola projected within Six Months? | Econometrics by Simulation
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Maia Majunder. Ebola Modeling update and Update: Ebola projections | Mens et Manus
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Chowell G, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A review. BioMedCentral Medicine 2014, 12:196. Published 10 October 2014 [Abstract, Provisional pdf]
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A Camacho, A.J. Kucharski, S Funk, J Breman, P Piot, W.J. Edmunds. Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease. Epidemics. [Available online 6 Oct 2014]
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Caitlin M. Rivers, Eric T. Lofgren, Madhav Marathe, et al. Modeling the Impact of Interventions of an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLOS Current Outbreaks. October 16, 2014 [Available online].
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Jeffrey Shaman et al. Computer Model Predicts Growth of Ebola Infections in West Africa. (+ Data Visualization) Mailman School of Public Health. Columbia University.
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David Fisman, Ashleigh Tuite. Projected Impact of vaccination Timing and Dose Availability on the Course of the 2014 West African Ebola Epidemic. PLOS Current Outbreak. Nov 21, 2014. [Available online]
- Suitability for a Kaggle: High
- Contact: Jeffrey Sherman, Columbia University
- Method: SEIRX (see below)
- Technical Publication/Notes: [Inference and Forecast of the Current West African Ebola Outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia](Inference and Forecast of the Current West African Ebola Outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia)
An excellent interactive (tableu) website featuring Ebola predictions as well as the associated data from the WHO's Disease Outbreak News and Situation Reports Forecasting Cumulative Infections, Cumulative Mortality, and Number of Infections.
A must-read.
"Prior modeling studies of Ebola have used expanded versions of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, in which additional compartments are employed to describe the Ebola transmission cycle more completely11,12,13 . For this effort, we add a compartment, X, for the deceased population to allow assimilation of mortality and case fatality rate data in addition to incidence. "
Excellent site detailing results of the modeling and the sources.
- Contact: Grant Brown, University of Iowa
